Meteor Activity Outlook for October 6-12, 2012

Meteor activity in general increases in October when compared to September. A
major shower (the Orionids) is active all month long with many minor showers.
Both branches of the Taurids become more active as the month progresses,
providing slow, graceful meteors to the nighttime scene. The Orionids are the
big story of the month reaching maximum activity on the 22nd. This display can
be seen equally well from both hemispheres which definitely helps out observers
located in the sporadic-poor southern hemisphere this time of year.

During this period the moon reaches its last quarter phase on Monday October
8th. At this time the moon is located ninety degrees west of the sun and will
rise near 0100 LDT Local Daylight Time as seen from mid-northern latitudes. As
the week progresses the waning crescent moon will rise later and later in the
morning sky, creating more favorable viewing conditions. The estimated total
hourly meteor rates for evening observers this week is near four for observers
located at mid-northern latitudes and three for observers in mid-southern
latitudes. For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near
fourteen from the mid-northern hemisphere and eight from the mid-southern
hemisphere. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light
and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in
watching meteor activity. Rates during the morning hours are reduced due to
interfering moonlight.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear
to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday
morning October 6/7. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed
coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available
at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the
celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are
located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful
in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from
each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due
north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be
remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather
they shoot outwards from the radiant so it is best to center your field of view
so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center.
Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to
the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is a
sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located below the
horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of
right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located
further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed
further down the list rise later in the night.

The following radiants are expected to be active this week:

The October Camelopardlids (OCT) are only active from September 30th through
October 6th with maximum activity occurring on October 5th. The radiant position
at maximum is located at 11:12 (168) +79. This position lies in a remote area of
eastern Camelopardlis. The nearest bright star is Kochab (Beta Ursae Minoris),
which lies a dozen degrees to the east. The radiant is somewhat unique as it is
best placed during the last dark hour after dusk and before dawn. It circumpolar
(never sets) for most of the northern hemisphere but is best seen from high
northern latitudes. Activity is best seen only during the last two days of
activity when 1-2 shower members may be seen per hour. This radiant is not well
placed to be viewed from the southern hemisphere and tropical northern
latitudes. With an entry velocity of 44 km/sec., most activity from this radiant
would be of medium velocity.

The Draconids (GIA) (also known as the Giacobinids) reach maximum activity on
October 8. The exact time of maximum activity can vary so observers are
encouraged to view on the evenings of October 7-9 to try and catch any of this
activity. The radiant is located at 17:28 (262) +54, which places it in southern
Draco, two degrees northwest of the third magnitude star Rastaban (Beta
Draconis). This star is one of the four that form the prominent head of Draco,
also known as the “Lozenge”. Expected rates are always a guess. The last quarter
moon will not cause any interference. The best time to view this activity is as
soon as it becomes dark during the early evening hours. Those located in high
northern latitudes can also try viewing this shower during the morning hours,
but the moon will then be above the horizon. Due to the extreme northern
declination, this shower is only visible from the southern tropics northward. At
19km/sec., the average Draconid is extremely slow. An outoutburst was observed
over Europe last year when zenith hourly rates briefly reached 300. Although
comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner arrived at perihelion in February 2012, no exceptional
activity is expected this year. Still, observers are encouraged to watch October
7-9, for any unusual activity.

The center of the Southern Taurid (STA) radiant is currently located at
02:00 (030) +08. This position lies near the intersection of the constellations
of Pisces, Cetus, and Aries. The radiant is so large that Southern Taurid
activity may also appear from the aforementioned constellations plus
northwestern Eridanus. This radiant is best placed near 0200 local daylight time
(LDT), when it lies on the meridian and is located highest in the sky. Maximum
occurs on October 9th so rates at this time are expected to be near three per
hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 29 km/sec., the average
Southern Taurid meteor would be of slow velocity.

The Orionids (ORI) are producing 2-3 shower members per hour during the last few
hours before dawn, when the radiant lies highest in the sky. The radiant is
currently located at 05:38 (084) +16, which is on the Orion/Taurus border, eight
degrees northwest of the brilliant first magnitude orange star Betelgeuse (Alpha
Orionis). Orionid meteors are equally well seen either side of the equator. With
an entry velocity of 67 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be swift.
Maximum activity is predicted to occur on the 22nd when hourly rates should be
near twenty.

The Epsilon Geminids (EGE) are producing 2-3 shower members per hour during the last few
hours before dawn, when the radiant lies highest in the sky. The radiant is
currently located at 05:38 (084) +16, which is on the Orion/Taurus border, eight
degrees northwest of the brilliant first magnitude orange star Betelgeuse (Alpha
Orionis). Orionid meteors are equally well seen either side of the equator. With
an entry velocity of 67 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be swift.
Maximum activity is predicted to occur on the 22nd when hourly rates should be
near twenty.

Studies of the IMO’s video database by Sirko Molau and Juergen Rendtel has
revealed a radiant active in Lynx this time of year. Earlier visual observations
of this activity placed the radiant in eastern Auriga. Therefore the radiant is
known as the Psi Aurigids (PSA). This radiant is active from October 8-18,
with maximum activity occurring on the 12th. The radiant drift is not well
established as positions jump around quite a bit during its ten day activity
period. At maximum the radiant is located at 07:36 (114) +47. This position lies
in a remote area of central Lynx. The nearest bright star is second magnitude
Castor (Alpha Geminorum), which lies fifteen degrees to the south. This is a
weak display and even at maximum activity rates would most likely be less than
one shower member per hour, no matter you location. With an entry velocity of 68
km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be swift.

As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see
approximately six sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as
seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near three per hour. As
seen from the mid-southern hemisphere (45S), morning rates would be near three
per hour as seen from rural observing sites and two per hour during the evening
hours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between the
listed figures. Rates during the morning hours are reduced due to interfering
moonlight.

The table below presents a condensed version of the expected activity this week.
Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning.