Meteor Activity Outlook for October 30-November 5, 2010

As seen from the northern hemisphere, meteor
rates continue to be strong in November. While no major activity is expected
this month, the two Taurid radiants plus the Leonids keep the skies active. The
addition of strong sporadic rates make November one of the better months to view
meteor activity from north of the equator. Skies are fairly quiet as seen from
the southern hemisphere this month. Activity from the three showers mentioned
above may be seen from south of the equator, but the sporadic rates are much
lower than those seen in the northern hemisphere.

During this period the moon wanes from its last
quarter phase to nearly new at the end of the period. This weekend the half
illuminated last quarter moon will rise near 0100 LDT (Local Daylight Time) and
will remain in the sky the remainder of the night. While the moon at this phase
is still bright, it is nowhere as bright as the full moon encountered the previous
week. Successful meteor observations can be undertaken by simply keeping the moon
far from your field of view. The observing situation improves further as the week
progresses as the moon wanes and rises later and later during the morning hours.
The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week is near six
from the northern hemisphere and three for observers south of the equator. For
morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near twenty from
the northern hemisphere and twelve as seen from the southern hemisphere. The actual
rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception,
local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching meteor activity.
Morning rates are reduced this week due to lunar interference.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear
to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday
morning October 30/31. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed
coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at
science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial
coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in
the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing
the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant
is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south
along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be remembered that meteor
activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards from
the radiant so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant lies
at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the
path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another
direction if it is a sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are
located below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east
manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed
first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while
those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

The following showers are expected to be active this week:

The center of the large Northern Taurid (NTA) radiant lies at 03:12 (048) +21.
This area of the sky is located in eastern Aries, ten degrees southwest of the
famous naked eye open cluster known as the Pleiades. The radiant is best placed
near 0200 local daylight time (LDT), when it lies highest above the horizon. This
shower peaks on November 13, so rates are slowly increasing. Current rates would
be near two per hour, no matter your location. Meteors from the Northern Taurids
strike the atmosphere at 29km/sec., which would produce meteors of slow velocity.
This shower is also responsible for many of the fireball reports seen in November.

The center of the large Southern Taurid (STA) radiant lies at 03:16 (049) +12.
This area of the sky is located in eastern Aries, fifteen degrees southwest of the
Pleiades. The radiant is also best placed near the meridian near 0200 LDT. We are
now well past the October 10 maximum for this shower but rates will still remain
near two per hour, no matter your location. Striking the atmosphere at 29 km/sec.,
the average Southern Taurid meteor travels slowly through the skies. This shower
is also responsible for many of the fireball reports seen in October.

Studies of the IMO video database by Sirko Molau and Juergen Rendtel has revealed
a radiant located in Taurus this time of year. The Eta Taurids (ETT) are
active from October 25 through November 3, with maximum occurring on October 25th.
The current radiant position lies at 04:04 (061) +24, which lies in western Taurus,
three degrees east of the Pleiades star cluster. The radiant is best placed near
0300 LDT, when it lies highest above the horizon. Meteors from the Eta Taurids
strike the atmosphere at 47km/sec., which would produce meteors of average
velocity. Expected rates would be less than one per hour, no matter your location.

The Orionids (ORI) reached maximum activity on October 22nd. Some activity
may still be seen during the morning hours from a radiant located at 06:48 (102) +16.
This position lies in southwestern Gemini, close to the second magnitude star
Alhena (Gamma Geminorum). The radiant is best placed on the meridian near 0500 LDT.
Current rates should be near three per hour no matter your location. At 67km/sec.,
the average Orionid is swift.

Another shower derived from the IMO video database is the Beta Cancrids (BCN).
This shower is active from October 25-November 3 with a peak on the 27th. This
shower has been known from visual observations for some time. Video analysis have
confirmed the activity but from a slightly different portion of the sky. The
radiant was suspected to be active from the Cancer/Gemini border when in fact the
position actually lies in the constellation of Monoceros, to the south. The
radiant is located at 07:32 (113) -10, which is fifteen degrees south of the
brilliant zero magnitude star Procyon (Alpha Canis Minoris). The radiant is best
placed during the last dark hour before dawn when it lies highest above the horizon
in a dark sky. Rates should less than one per hour. With an entry velocity of 65
km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be swift.

As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see approximately
twelve sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as seen from
rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near four per hour. As seen from the
mid-southern hemisphere (45S), morning rates would be near four per hour as seen
from rural observing sites and two per hour during the evening hours. Locations
between these two extremes would see activity between the listed figures. Morning
rates are reduced due to moonlight.

The table below presents a condensed version of the expected activity this week.
Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning.