Meteor Activity Outlook for October 17-23, 2009

Meteor activity in general increases in October
when compared to September. A major shower (the Orionids) is active most of the
month along with several minor showers. Both branches of the Taurids become more
active as the month progresses, providing slow, graceful meteors to the nighttime
scene. The Orionids are the big story of the month reaching maximum activity on
the 22nd. This display can be seen equally well from both hemispheres which
definitely helps out observers located in the sporadic-poor southern
hemisphere this time of year.

During this period the moon reaches its new
phase on Sunday October 18th. At this time the moon lies near the sun and is
invisible at night. Later in the period the waxing crescent moon will enter the
evening sky but will not interfere with meteor observing. The estimated total
hourly rates for evening observers this week is near five as seen from the northern
hemisphere and two from the southern hemisphere. For morning observers the estimated
total hourly rates should be near twenty five from the northern hemisphere and
fifteen as seen from the southern hemisphere. The actual rates will also depend
on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions,
alertness and experience in watching meteor activity.

The radiant positions and rates listed below are exact
for Saturday night/Sunday morning October 17/18. These positions do not change
greatly day to day so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period.
Most star atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps
with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly
where these positions are located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium
program is also useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the
year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the
sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It
must be remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position.
Rather they shoot outwards from the radiant so it is best to center your field of
view so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will
allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is
a shower member) or in another direction if it is a sporadic. Meteor activity is
not seen from radiants that are located below the horizon. The positions below
are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude).
The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier
in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

The following showers are expected to be active this week.

A new radiant has been discovered in Ursa Minor which is active during this
period. The October Ursa Minorids (OUI) are active from October 16-28,
with maximum occurring on the 24th. The current radiant position lies at 18:40
(280) +76. This position lies in northern Draco near the faint star 50 Draconis.
The radiant is best placed just as soon as it becomes dark, when it lies highest
in a dark sky. Meteors from the October Ursa Minorids strike the atmosphere at
28km/sec., which would produce meteors of slow velocity. Expected rates would be
less than one per hour, as seen from the northern hemisphere. Activity from this
shower is not visible in the southern hemisphere due to the high northerly location
of the radiant.

A recent study of video radiants by Sirko Molau has revealed that activity from
the Northern Taurids (NTA) does not begin until October 19th. This is nearly
one month after pervious dates. Maximum activity does not occur until November 13th
so current rates will be low, lower than its southern counterpart until late in the
month. The radiant position lies at 02:32 (038) +19, which lies in central Aries,
six degrees southeast of the second magnitude star Hamal (Alpha Arietis). The
radiant is best placed near 0130 LDT, when it lies highest above the horizon.
Meteors from the Northern Taurids strike the atmosphere at 29km/sec., which would
produce meteors of slow velocity. Expected rates would be less than one per hour,
no matter your location.

The center of the large Southern Taurid (STA)
radiant lies at 02:34 (038) +10. This position lies on the Aries/Cetus border,
three degrees west of the fourth magnitude star Upsilon Ceti. Since the radiant
is so large, any meteor from eastern Pisces, northern Cetus, or southern Aries
could be a candidate for this shower. The radiant is best placed near the meridian
at 0130 LDT, but activity may be seen all night long. Striking the atmosphere at
29 km/sec., the average Southern Taurid meteor travels slowly through the skies.
Rates should be near three per hour no matter your location.

A new radiant has been discovered in Aries which is active during this period. The
Sigma Arietids (SSA) are active from October 12-19, with maximum occurring
on the 19th. The current radiant position lies at 03:26 (051) +22, which lies on
the Aries/Taurus border, lying directly between the Pleiades star cluster and the
fourth magnitude star Delta Arietis. The radiant is best placed near 0230 LDT,
when it lies highest above the horizon. Meteors from the Sigma Arietids strike the
atmosphere at 45km/sec., which would produce meteors of average velocity. Expected
rates would be less than one per hour, no matter your location.

The Orionids (ORI) are predicted to peak on Thursday morning October 22nd.
This is a broad maximum so activity on the 21st and 23nd should also be good. The
radiant is currently located at 06:12 (93) +15. This position lies in northwestern
Orion one degree north of the fourth magnitude star Xi Orionis. The radiant rises
near 2300 LDT and is best placed on the meridian near 0530 LDT. With maximum
activity predicted for October 22, current rates for all locations would be near
five per hour as seen after midnight. At 66km/sec., the average Orionid is swift.

The Epsilon Geminids (EGE) are active from October 16th through the 27th.
Maximum activity occurs on the 19th. The radiant is currently located at 06:44
(101) +28. This position lies in northwestern Gemini, three degrees northwest of
the third magnitude star Epsilon Geminorum. This position is also close to the
Orionid radiant. Care must taken for correct shower association. The Orionids will
be far more numerous. Current rates are most likely less than one per hour. The
radiant is best placed near 0600 LDT, when it lies highest above the horizon. At
70km/sec., the average Epsilon Geminid is swift.

Activity from Ursa Major this time of year has been known for several years now.
Recent studies by Sirko Molau has provided more precise data on this activity. The
October Ursa Majorids (OCU) are active from October 12-19, with maximum
occurring on the 15th. The current radiant position lies at 09:58 (149) +63, which
lies in western Ursa Major, four degrees north of the third magnitude star Nu Ursae
Majoris. The radiant is best placed during the last dark hour before the start of
morning twilight, when it highest above the horizon in a dark sky. Meteors from the
October Ursa Majorids strike the atmosphere at 53km/sec., which would produce
meteors of medium-swift velocity. Expected rates would be less than one per hour,
no matter your location. This activity is not visible from the southern hemisphere
due to the high northerly declination of the radiant.

The Leonis Minorids (LMI) are active from October 16-27 with maximum activity
occurring on October 23rd. ZHR’s are usually low but the radiant is far removed
from the Orionids and Epsilon Geminids so that any possible shower members should
be easily identified. Hourly rates would be less than one this week. This radiant
is currently located at 10:21 (155) +37, which places it in northeastern Leo Minor,
very close to the fourth magnitude star Beta Leonis Minoris. The radiant is best
placed just before dawn when it lies highest in a dark sky. This shower is better
situated for observers situated in the northern hemisphere where the radiant rises
far higher into the sky before the start of morning twilight. At 60km/sec., the
average Leonis Minorid is swift.

As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see
approximately fifteen Sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before
dawn as seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near four per
hour. As seen from the mid-southern hemisphere (45S), morning rates would be
near four per hour as seen from rural observing sites and one per hour
during the evening hours. Locations between these two extremes would see
activity between the listed figures.

The table below presents a condensed version of the expected activity this week.
Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning.