Meteor Activity Outlook for October 13-19, 2012

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Monday October 15th. At
this time the moon is located near the sun and is invisible at night. As the
week progresses the waxing crescent moon will enter the evening sky but will not
interfere with meteor observing. The estimated total hourly meteor rates for
evening observers this week is near four for observers located at mid-northern
latitudes and three for observers in mid-southern latitudes. For morning
observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near twenty from the
mid-northern hemisphere and thirteen from the mid-southern hemisphere. The
actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion
perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in watching
meteor activity.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear
to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday
morning October 13/14. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed
coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available
at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the
celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are
located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful
in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from
each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due
north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be
remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather
they shoot outwards from the radiant so it is best to center your field of view
so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center.
Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to
the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is a
sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located below the
horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of
right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located
further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed
further down the list rise later in the night.

The following radiants are expected to be active this week:

The center of the Southern Taurid (STA) radiant is currently located at
02:24 (036) +10. This position lies near on the Cetus/Aries border. The fourth
magnitude star Xi 2 Ceti lies two degrees southeast from the center of the
radiant. The radiant is so large that Southern Taurid activity may also appear
from eastern Pisces, Aries, northern Cetus, northern Eridanus, and western
Taurus. This radiant is best placed near 0200 local daylight time (LDT), when it
lies on the meridian and is located highest in the sky. Maximum occurred on
October 9th, but rates remain near maximum levels of three per hour for a week
after this date. With an entry velocity of 29 km/sec., the average Southern
Taurid meteor would be of slow velocity.

The Orionids (ORI) are producing 3-5 shower members per hour during the last few
hours before dawn, when the radiant lies highest in the sky. The radiant is
currently located at 06:00 (090) +16, which is in the northeastern Orion, eight
degrees northwest of the brilliant first magnitude orange star Betelgeuse (Alpha
Orionis). Orionid meteors are equally well seen either side of the equator. With
an entry velocity of 67 km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be swift.
Maximum activity is predicted to occur on the 22nd when hourly rates should be
near twenty.

The Epsilon Geminids (EGE) are active all month long with low hourly rates. Even
at maximum activity only three shower members per hour are expected. Recent
research by the IMO has indicated an earlier maximum of October 15th, rather
than October 19th. The radiant position is currently located at 06:27 (097) +29.
This position actually lies within the borders of Auriga, just east of the faint
star Kappa Aurigae. The radiant is also best placed during the last dark hour
before dawn, when it lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. Rates would
be near two per hour as seen from the northern hemisphere and less than one per
hour as seen south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 70 km/sec., most
activity from this radiant would be swift.

Studies of the IMO’s video database by Sirko Molau and Juergen Rendtel has
revealed a radiant active in Lynx this time of year. Earlier visual observations
of this activity placed the radiant in eastern Auriga. Therefore the radiant is
known as the Psi Aurigids (PSA). This radiant is active from October 8-18, with
maximum activity occurring on the 12th. The radiant drift is not well
established as positions jump around quite a bit during its ten day activity
period. At maximum the radiant is located at 07:36 (113) +47. This position lies
in a remote area of central Lynx. The nearest bright star is second magnitude
Castor (Alpha Geminorum), which lies fifteen degrees to the south. This is a
weak display and even at maximum activity rates would most likely be less than
one shower member per hour, no matter you location. With an entry velocity of 68
km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be swift.

Studies of the IMO’s video database by Sirko Molau and Juergen Rendtel has also
revealed a radiant active in Ursa Major this time of year. The October Ursae
Majorids (OCU). are active from October 15-20, with maximum activity occurring
on the 16th. At maximum the radiant is located at 09:36 (144) +65. This position
lies in western Ursa Major, near the faint star 23 Ursae Majoris. This area of
the sky is best placed during the last hour before morning twilight, when it
lies highest above the horizon in a dark sky. At maximum activity rates would
most likely be 1-2 per hour. Due to the high northern location of this radiant,
these meteors are not well seen from the southern hemisphere. With an entry
velocity of 54km/sec., most activity from this radiant would be medium-swift.

The Leonis Minorids (LMI) are active from October 16-27 with maximum activity
occurring on October 23rd. Hourly rates would be less than one this week. This
radiant is currently located at 10:16 (154) +38, which places it in northern Leo
Minor, two degrees northwest of the fourth magnitude star Beta Leonis Minoris .
The radiant is best placed just before dawn when it lies highest in a dark sky.
This shower is better situated for observers situated in the northern hemisphere
where the radiant rises far higher into the sky before the start of morning
twilight. At 60km/sec., the average Leonis Minorid is swift.

As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see
approximately ten sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as
seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near three per hour. As
seen from the mid-southern hemisphere (45S), morning rates would be near five
per hour as seen from rural observing sites and two per hour during the evening
hours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between the
listed figures.

The table below presents a condensed version of the expected activity this week.
Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning.