Meteor Activity Outlook for January 29-February 4, 2011

February offers the meteor observer in the northern hemisphere a couple of weak
showers plus falling sporadic rates. This may not seem too exiting but you never
know when surprises are in store. An errant earthgrazer from the Centaurid complex
may shoot northward. Better yet, a bright fireball may light up the sky. February
is the start of the fireball season, when an abundance of fireballs seem to occur.
This lasts well into April and seems to occur mostly during the early evening hours.

Observers in the southern hemisphere are treated to the Alpha Centaurid peak on
the 8th plus the entire Centaurid complex of radiants is active all month long.
Sporadic rates are slightly less than those seen in January, but still stronger
than those witnessed north of the equator.

During this period the moon reaches its new phase on Thursday February 3rd. At
that time the moon lies near the sun and is invisible at night. This weekend the
waning crescent moon will rise during the early morning hours but will not cause
any problems as long as you keep it out of your field of view. The estimated total
hourly rates for evening observers this week is near three no matter your location.
For morning observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near thirteen no
matter your location. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal
light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and experience in
watching meteor activity.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear
to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday
morning January 29/30. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the
listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases
(available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines
of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions
are located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also
useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity
from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either
due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be
remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather
they shoot outwards from the radiant so it is best to center your field of view
so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow
you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower
member) or in another direction if it is a sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen
from radiants that are located below the horizon. The positions below are listed
in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The
positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier
in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

The following showers are expected to be active this week:

The wide Antihelion (ANT) radiant is now centered at 09:32 (143) +13.
This area of the sky lies in western Leo, eight degrees northwest of the first
magnitude star Regulus (Alpha Leonis). This radiant is best placed near 0100 local
standard time (LST) when it lies on the meridian and is located highest in the sky.
Due to the large size of this radiant, any meteor radiating from northwestern Hydra,
western Leo, or Cancer could be a candidate for this shower. Rates at this time
should be near two per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of
30 km/sec., the average Antihelion meteor would be of medium-slow speed.

This is the last week to see activity from the December Leonis Minorids
(DLM) until next December. Activity would be produced from a radiant
located at 13:07 (197) +13. This position lies in northern Virgo, two degrees
northeast of the second magnitude star Vindemiatrix (Epsilon Virginis). These
meteors are best seen near 0500 LST when the radiant lies highest above the
horizon. This shower peaked on December 20th so current rates would be less than
one per hour no matter your location. At 64km/sec. the December Leonis Minorids
produce mostly swift meteors.

The Alpha Centaurids (ACE) are now active from a radiant located
at 13:26 (202) -57. This position lies in southeastern Centaurus, three degrees
southwest of the second magnitude star Epsilon Centauri. The radiant is best placed
during the last dark hour before dawn, when it lies highest above the horizon in a
dark sky. At this position, these meteors are only visible south of 35 degrees north
latitude. The further one is located south (down to 60S) the better the radiant is
situated in the sky. Current rates rates from the southern hemisphere is near one
per hour. At 56km/sec. the Alpha Centaurids would produce mostly swift meteors.

As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see approximately
ten Sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as
seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near two per hour. As seen
from the mid-southern hemisphere (45S), morning rates would also be near twelve per
hour as seen from rural observing sites and two per hour during the evening hours.
Locations between these two extremes would see activity between the listed figures.

The table below presents a condensed version of the expected activity this week.
Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning.