Meteor Activity Outlook for February 16-22, 2007

February meteor rates will be less than those
seen in January for observers located in the northern hemisphere. Only the weak
Delta Leonids are active this month. Combine this with falling sporadic rates and
it is often a struggle to go out into the cold. The southern hemisphere also
experiences a dip in sporadic rates but the activity from the Alpha Centaurids
more than makes up this difference. Observers south of the equator are encouraged
to take advantage of the warm nights and to view the meteor activity as often as
possible. There are many suspected radiants in the southern sky this time of year
which are in need of study. Only the Alpha Centaurids have been verified but
there may be other centers of activity awaiting discovery.

This week the moon reaches its new phase on
Saturday February 17. At this time the moon will lie close to the sun and will
not interfere with observing anytime during the night. Later next week a waxing
crescent moon will enter the evening sky but will be too thin and will set too
early to cause any problem to meteor observers. The estimated total hourly
rates for evening observers this week is near three for those viewing from the
northern hemisphere and four for those located south of the equator. For morning
observers the estimated total hourly rates should be near twelve for observers
north of the equator and seventeen for those observers viewing from the southern
hemisphere. These rates assume that you are watching from rural areas away from
all sources of light pollution. The actual rates will also depend on factors such
as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness and
experience in watching meteor activity.

The radiant positions listed below are exact for Saturday
night/Sunday morning February 17/18. These positions do not change greatly day to day
so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases
(available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines
of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions
are located in the sky. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful
in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each
radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or
south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be remembered that
meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards
from the radiant so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant
lies at the edge and not the center. This method will allow you to easily trace the
path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another
direction if it is a sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are
located below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner
in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are
located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those
listed further down the list rise later in the night.

These showers are expected to be active this week:

The Antihelion (ANT) radiant is now centered at 10:48 (162) +06. This area
of the sky lies on the Leo/Sextans border some fifteen degrees southeast of the
first magnitude star Regulus (Alpha Leonis). This radiant is best placed near 0100
local standard time when it lies on the meridian and is situated highest in the
sky. Rates at this time should be near two per hour no matter your location. With
an entry velocity of 30 km/sec., the average Antihelion meteor would be of
medium-slow speed.

The weak Delta Leonid (DLE) radiant is now located at 10:48 (162) +18. This
position lies in northern Leo near the faint star 51 Leonis. This position is just
twelve degrees north of the Antihelion radiant so great care must be taken when
assigning these meteors. The radiant is best placed near 0100 local standard time
when it lies on the meridian and is situated highest in the sky. Rates at this time
should be less than one per hour, no matter your location. The peak activity occurs
on February 25, when the ZHR reaches two. With an entry velocity of 23 km/sec.,
the average Delta Leonid meteor would be of slow speed.

The Alpha Centaurids (ACE) reached maximum activity on February 8 with a
ZHR near five. Current rates would be near two shower members per hour as seen from
the southern hemisphere. This radiant is now centered at 14:52 (223) -63. This
area of the sky lies in central Circinus, three degrees southeast brilliant star
Rigel Kentaurus (Alpha Centauri). This radiant is best placed near 0500 local
standard time when it lies on the meridian and is situated highest in the sky.
Unfortunately for northern observers, this radiant does not rise above the horizon
for observers north of latitude 30 north. Therefore only the north tropical areas
and points further south can view this activity. With an entry velocity of 56 km/sec.,
the average Alpha Centaurid meteor would be of swift speed.

Sporadic rates are slowing decreasing for observers
located in the northern hemisphere. One would expect to see perhaps ten random
meteors during the last hour before dawn from rural observing sites. During the
first dark hour after the end of evening twilight, perhaps three random meteors can
be seen per hour. Sporadic rates increase as the night progresses so rates seen
near midnight would be near six per hour. Sporadic rates seen from the southern
hemisphere are near the first of two annual maximums. One would expect to see
perhaps thirteen random meteors during the last hour before dawn from rural observing
sites. During the first dark hour after the end of evening twilight, perhaps four
random meteors can be seen per hour, increasing to eight by midnight.