Meteor Activity Outlook for 29 October-4 November 2022

On July 21, 2022, Greg Price was photographing the night sky from Richmond, South Island, New Zealand, hoping to capture aurora. Instead he captured this impressive fireball at 20:06 NZST (8:06 UT) For more on this fireball, visit: https://fireball.imo.net/members/imo_view/event/2022/4171  ©Greg Price

As seen from the Northern Hemisphere, meteor rates continue to be strong in November. While no major activity is expected this month, the two Taurid radiants plus the Leonids keep the skies active. The addition of strong sporadic rates makes November one of the better months to view meteor activity from north of the equator. Skies are fairly quiet as seen from the Southern Hemisphere this month. Activity from the three showers mentioned above may be seen from south of the equator, but the sporadic rates are much lower than those seen north of the equator. Both hemispheres can see an increase in fireballs from the Southern Taurids, which is expected to last though the first half of the month.

During this period, the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Tuesday November 1st. At that time the moon will lie 90 degrees east of the sun and will set near  22:00 local standard time (LST) on October 31st. As the week progresses the waxing gibbous moon will shrink the window of dark sky between moon set and dawn to about two hours by the end of the period. This weekend the moon will during the evening hours and will not interfere with meteor observing. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week should be near 4 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 3 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S) For morning observers, the estimated total hourly rates should be near 20 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 15 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). Evening rates are reduced by moonlight during this period. The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness, and experience in watching meteor activity. Note that the hourly rates listed below are estimates as viewed from dark sky sites away from urban light sources. Observers viewing from urban areas will see less activity as only the brighter meteors will be visible from such locations.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning October 29/30. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in the sky. I have also included charts of the sky that display the radiant positions for evening, midnight, and morning. The center of each chart is the sky directly overhead at the appropriate hour. These charts are oriented for facing south but can be used for any direction by rotating the charts to the desired direction. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards from the radiant, so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located far below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

These sources of meteoric activity are expected to be active this week.

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The Northern Taurids (NTA) are active from a radiant located at 03:08 (047) +20. This area of the sky is located in central Aries, 1 degree west of the 4th magnitude star known as Botein (delta Arietis). To best see these meteors, one should face southward near 01:00. Maximum activity is not until November 12^th so rates at this time should be near 2 per hour as seen from the Northern Hemisphere and 1 as seen from south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 29 km/sec., the average NTA meteor would be of medium-slow velocity.

The Southern Taurids (STA) are active and producing an increasing number of fireballs from a radiant located at 03:08 (047) +14. This position lies in eastern Aries, 3 degrees west of the 4th magnitude star known as 5 Tauri. These meteors are best seen by facing southward near 01:00 LST, when the radiant lies highest in the sky. Rates may be near 7 per hour as seen from the Northern Hemisphere and 5 as seen from south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 27 km/sec., the average STA meteor would be of medium-slow velocity. As stated previously, all sky cameras are currently recording 2-3 STA fireballs per night. This could increase to 5 or more by the time we reach the November 5 maximum.

The Orionids (ORI) are active from September 26 through November 22, with maximum activity occurring on October 21st. The radiant is currently located at 06:44 (101) +16, which places it in western Gemini, 1 degree east of the 2nd magnitude star known as Alhena (gamma Geminorum). To best see these meteors, face toward the south during the last hours prior to dawn. Current rates are expected to be near 3 per hour, no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 66 km/sec., the average ORI meteor would be of swift velocity.

Sporadic meteors are those meteors that cannot be associated with any known meteor shower. All meteor showers are evolving and disperse over time to the point where they are no longer recognizable. Away from the peaks of the major annual showers, these sporadic meteors make up the bulk of the activity seen each night. As seen from the mid-Northern Hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see during this period approximately 10 sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near 3 per hour. As seen from the tropical Southern latitudes (25S), morning rates would be near 7 per hour as seen from rural observing sites and 2 per hour during the evening hours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between these listed figures. Evening rates are reduced during this period.

The list below offers the information in tabular form.  Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning except where noted in the shower descriptions.

Class Explanation: A scale to group meteor showers by their intensity:

• Class I: the strongest annual showers with Zenith Hourly Rates normally ten or better.
• Class II: reliable minor showers with ZHR’s normally two to ten.
• Class III: showers that do not provide annual activity. These showers are rarely active yet have the potential to produce a major display on occasion.
• Class IV: weak minor showers with ZHR’s rarely exceeding two. The study of these showers is best left to experienced observers who use plotting and angular velocity estimates to determine shower association. These weak showers are also good targets for video and photographic work. Observers with less experience are urged to limit their shower associations to showers with a rating of I to III.