Meteor Activity Outlook for 15-21 October 2022

Bernd Klemt captured this brilliant, multi-bursting fireball using his AllSky7 Camera System on July 12, 2022, at 00:24 CEST (22:24 UT on July 11th) from Bergisch Gladbach, Nordrhein-Westfalen, Germany.  For more information on this event visit: https://fireball.imo.net/members/imo_view/event/2022/3970 ©Bernd Klemt

During this period, the moon reaches its last quarter phase on Monday October 17th. At that time the moon will lie 90 degrees west of the sun and will rise between 22:00-23:00 local Summer time (LST). As the week progresses the waning crescent moon will rise later with each passing morning, allowing viewing conditions to improve as the week progresses. This weekend the evening hours will be free of interfering moonlight. The morning hours will have a bright moon, but one can still observe meteor activity by facing away from the moon, avoiding the bright moonlight from ruining your night vision. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week should be near 4 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 3 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S) For morning observers, the estimated total hourly rates should be near 17 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 12 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness, and experience in watching meteor activity. Morning rates are reduced this week due to interfering moonlight. Note that the hourly rates listed below are estimates as viewed from dark sky sites away from urban light sources. Observers viewing from urban areas will see less activity as only the brighter meteors will be visible from such locations.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning October 15/16. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in the sky. I have also included charts of the sky that display the radiant positions for evening, midnight, and morning. The center of each chart is the sky directly overhead at the appropriate hour. These charts are oriented for facing south but can be used for any direction by rotating the charts to the desired direction. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards from the radiant, so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located far below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

These sources of meteoric activity are expected to be active this week.

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The Southern Taurids (STA) are active from a large radiant located at 02:28 (037) +11. This area of the sky is located in southern Aries, 2 degrees northwest of the 4th magnitude star known as mu Ceti. These meteors are visible most of the night but are best seen by facing southward near 02:00 LST. Current hourly rates are expected to be near 4 for those viewing from the Northern Hemisphere and 3 from locations south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 27 km/sec., the average STA meteor would be of medium-slow velocity. Peak rates are expected in late October and early November when hourly rates could approach 10.

The delta Aurigids (DAU) are a weak shower active from October 10-18, with maximum activity occurring on the 11th.The current position of this radiant is located at 05:52 (088) +43. This position is located in eastern Auriga, 2 degrees southwest of the 2nd magnitude star known as Menkalinan (beta Aurigae). To best see these meteors, viewing during the last few hours prior to dawn. The radiant lies nearly overhead for mid-northern latitudes so any dark, unobstructed direction is fine for viewing this activity. Rates are expected to be less than 1 per hour. With an entry velocity of 64 km/sec., the average DAU meteor would be of swift velocity.

The Orionids (ORI) are active from October 2 through November 7 with maximum activity occurring on October 21st. The radiant is currently located at 06:02 (091) +15, which places it in northeastern Orion, 1 degree west of the 4th magnitude star known as nu Orionis. To best see these meteors, face toward the sourth during the last hours prior to dawn. Current rates are expected to be near 3 per hour, no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 66 km/sec., the average ORI meteor would be of swift velocity. Also see: https://www.imo.net/viewing-the-orionid-meteor-shower-in-2022/

The epsilon Geminids (EGE) are active from a radiant located at 06:40 (100) +27. This area of the sky lies in central Gemini, 2 degrees north of the 3rd magnitude star known as Mebsuta (epsilon Geminorum). To best see these meteors, face toward the southeast during the last hours prior to dawn. These meteors are active from October 14-27, with maximum activity occurring on October 18. Hourly rates at this time should be near 1 as seen for the Northern Hemisphere and less than 1 per hour as seen from south of the equator. With an entry velocity of 70 km/sec., the average EGE meteor would be of swift velocity.

The Leonis Minorids (LMI) are active from October 19-27, with maximum activity occurring on October 24^th. The radiant is currently located at 10:12 (154) +41, which places it in northern Leo Minor, 2 degrees southwest of the 3rd magnitude star known as Tania Australis (mu Ursae Majoris). These meteors are best seen by facing toward the east during the last couple of hours prior to dawn. This shower is better for observers situated in the Northern Hemisphere where the radiant rises far higher into the sky before the start of morning twilight. Current rates would be less than 1 no matter your location. At 62km/sec., the average Leonis Minorid is swift. From my personal experience this minor shower produces a high proportion of bright meteors.

Sporadic meteors are those meteors that cannot be associated with any known meteor shower. All meteor showers are evolving and disperse over time to the point where they are no longer recognizable. Away from the peaks of the major annual showers, these sporadic meteors make up the bulk of the activity seen each night. As seen from the mid-Northern Hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see during this period approximately 9 sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near 3 per hour. As seen from the tropical Southern latitudes (25S), morning rates would be near 6 per hour as seen from rural observing sites and 2 per hour during the evening hours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between these listed figures.

The list below offers the information in tabular form. Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning except where noted in the shower descriptions.

Class Explanation: A scale to group meteor showers by their intensity:

• Class I: the strongest annual showers with Zenith Hourly Rates normally ten or better.
• Class II: reliable minor showers with ZHR’s normally two to ten.
• Class III: showers that do not provide annual activity. These showers are rarely active yet have the potential to produce a major display on occasion.
• Class IV: weak minor showers with ZHR’s rarely exceeding two. The study of these showers is best left to experienced observers who use plotting and angular velocity estimates to determine shower association. These weak showers are also good targets for video and photographic work. Observers with less experience are urged to limit their shower associations to showers with a rating of I to III.