Meteor Activity Outlook for 12-18 October 2024

Cathy Warner captured this impressive fireball on May 2, 2024, at 23:34 PDT (6:34 UT) from Union, Washington USA.  ©Cathy Warner

During this period, the moon reaches its full phase on Thursday October 17th. At that time the moon will lie opposite to the sun and will lie above the horizon all night long. This weekend the waxing gibbous moon will set during the early morning hours, allowing a small window of opportunity to view meteor activity under dark skies. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this weekend should be near 3 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 2 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S) For morning observers, the estimated total hourly rates should be near 15 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 11 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). The actual rates seen will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness, and experience in watching meteor activity. Rates are reduced during this period due to moonlight. Note that the hourly rates listed below are estimates as viewed from dark sky sites away from urban light sources. Observers viewing from urban areas will see less activity as only the brighter meteors will be visible from such locations.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning October 12/13. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in the sky. I have also included charts of the sky that display the radiant positions for evening, midnight, and morning. The center of each chart is the sky directly overhead at the appropriate hour. These charts are oriented for facing south but can be used for any direction by rotating the charts to the desired direction. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. Radiants that rise after midnight will not reach their highest point in the sky until daylight. For these radiants, it is best to view them during the last few hours before dawn. It must be remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at its radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards from the radiant, so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant lies toward the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located far below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

These sources of meteoric activity are expected to be active this week

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We are now encountering inbound debris from comet 2P/Encke, which has its source superimposed upon the anthelion radiant. Since it has been shown that meteors from 2P/Encke are more numerous than the Anthelions, we will recognize this activity as the Southern Taurids (STA) from now until late November, when we no longer encounter remnants from comet 2P/Encke. Like the anthelion radiant, the source area is large and diffuse so observers can be liberal with the shower association of these meteors. Recent investigations of the Southern Taurids have revealed two clearly distinct components. The first component, also known as the October Arietids, represents the early and annual activity of Southern Taurids. It displays very little variation year to year. The latter component represents the main source of activity and is periodic. The early STA’s are active from September 28 through November 2 and peaks on October 14^th. The main component of the STA’s are active from October 12 through November 27 and peaks on November 5th. The center of the large STA radiant is currently located at 02:22 (035) +11. This position lies in southwestern Aries, 1 degree northwest of the faint star known as xi Arietis. This radiant is best placed near 0200 local summer time (LST), when it lies on the meridian and is located highest in the southern sky. Rates at this time should be near 2 per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 27 km/sec., the average STA meteor would be of medium-slow velocity.

The delta Aurigids (DAU) are active from October 10-18 with maximum activity occurring on October 11^th. On the 11th, the radiant is located at 05:36 (084) +44. This area of the sky lies in central Auriga, 4 degrees southeast of the zero magnitude star known as Capella (alpha Aurigae). To best see these meteors, face toward the northeast during the last dark hour prior to dawn. Rates at this time should be less than 1 per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 64 km/sec., the average DAU meteor would be of swift velocity.

The Orionids (ORI) are active from October 2 through November 12, with maximum activity occurring on October 22nd. The radiant is currently located at 06:00 (090) +15, which places it in northeastern Orion, 1 degree west of the 4th magnitude star known as nu Orionis. This area of the sky is best placed for observing during the last dark hour prior to dawn, when it lies highest in the southern sky.  Current rates are expected to be near 2 per hour, no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 66 km/sec., the average ORI meteor would be of swift velocity.

The epsilon Geminids (EGE) are active from September 27^th through November 7^th with maximum activity occurring on October 16^th. The radiant is currently located at 06:26 (097) +29. This area of the sky lies in southeastern Auriga, 2 degrees east of the 4th magnitude star known as kappa Aurigae. To best see these meteors, face toward the east during the last dark hour prior to dawn. Rates at this time should be less than 1 per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 70 km/sec., the average EGE meteor would be of swift velocity.

The Leonis Minorids (LMI) are active from October 15^th to November 7^th, with maximum activity occurring on October 22nd. The radiant is currently located at 09:58 (150) +40, which places it in southern Ursa Major, 2 degrees south of the the 3rd magnitude star known as Tania Australis (mu Ursae Majoris). These meteors are best seen by facing toward the east during the last couple of hours prior to dawn. This shower is better for observers situated in the northern hemisphere where the radiant rises far higher into the northeastern sky before the start of morning twilight. Current rates should be less than 1 per hour no matter your location. At 62km/sec., the average Leonis Minorid is swift. From my personal experience this minor shower produces a high proportion of bright meteors.

Sporadic meteors are those meteors that cannot be associated with any known meteor shower. All meteor showers are evolving and disperse over time to the point where they are no longer recognizable. Away from the peaks of the major annual showers, these sporadic meteors make up the bulk of the activity seen each night. As seen from the mid-northern hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see during this period approximately 10 sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near 2 per hour. As seen from the tropical southern latitudes (25S), morning rates would be near 7 per hour as seen from rural observing sites and 1 per hour during the evening hours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between these listed figures.

The list below offers the information in tabular form. Rates and positions are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning.

Class Explanation: A scale to group meteor showers by their intensity:

• Class I: the strongest annual showers with Zenith Hourly Rates normally ten or better.
• Class II: reliable minor showers with ZHR’s normally two to ten.
• Class III: showers that do not provide annual activity. These showers are rarely active yet have the potential to produce a major display on occasion.
• Class IV: weak minor showers with ZHR’s rarely exceeding two. The study of these showers is best left to experienced observers who use plotting and angular velocity estimates to determine shower association. These weak showers are also good targets for video and photographic work. Observers with less experience are urged to limit their shower associations to showers with a rating of I to III.