Meteor Activity Outlook 1-7 October 2022

Jordan Ragsdale captured this brilliant fireball using his AllSky Camera System on June 30, 2022, at 22:57 MDT (4:57 UT on July 1st) from Eagle, Idaho, USA. Note that the secondary streak is a camera artifact and not another meteor. For more information on this event visit: https://fireball.imo.net/members/imo_view/event/2022/3765 ©Jordan Ragsdale

Meteor activity increases in October when compared to September. A major shower (the Orionids) is active all month long and there are also many minor showers to be seen. Both branches of the Taurids become more active as the month progresses, providing slow, graceful meteors to the nighttime scene. The Orionids are the big story of the month reaching maximum activity on the 21st. This display can be seen equally well from both hemispheres which definitely helps out observers located in the sporadic-poor southern hemisphere this time of year. Sporadic activity is still good as seen from the northern hemisphere. In the southern hemisphere though, the sporadic activity is near its annual nadir.

During this period, the moon reaches its first quarter phase on Monday October 3rd. At that time the moon will lie 90 degrees east of the sun and will be set between 22:00 and 23:00 local summer time (LST) on the evening of the 2nd. As the week progresses the waxing gibbous moon will begin to seriously interfere with meteor observing as it approaches its full phase. This weekend, the morning hours will be free of interfering moonlight. The estimated total hourly rates for evening observers this week should be near 3 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 2 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S) For morning observers, the estimated total hourly rates should be near 13 as seen from mid-northern latitudes (45N) and 10 as seen from tropical southern locations (25S). The actual rates will also depend on factors such as personal light and motion perception, local weather conditions, alertness, and experience in watching meteor activity. Evening rates are reduced due to interfering moonlight. Note that the hourly rates listed below are estimates as viewed from dark sky sites away from urban light sources. Observers viewing from urban areas will see less activity as only the brighter meteors will be visible from such locations.

The radiant (the area of the sky where meteors appear to shoot from) positions and rates listed below are exact for Saturday night/Sunday morning October 1/2. These positions do not change greatly day to day so the listed coordinates may be used during this entire period. Most star atlases (available at science stores and planetariums) will provide maps with grid lines of the celestial coordinates so that you may find out exactly where these positions are located in the sky. I have also included charts of the sky that display the radiant positions for evening, midnight, and morning. The center of each chart is the sky directly overhead at the appropriate hour. These charts are oriented for facing south but can be used for any direction by rotating the charts to the desired direction. A planisphere or computer planetarium program is also useful in showing the sky at any time of night on any date of the year. Activity from each radiant is best seen when it is positioned highest in the sky, either due north or south along the meridian, depending on your latitude. It must be remembered that meteor activity is rarely seen at the radiant position. Rather they shoot outwards from the radiant, so it is best to center your field of view so that the radiant lies at the edge and not the center. Viewing there will allow you to easily trace the path of each meteor back to the radiant (if it is a shower member) or in another direction if it is sporadic. Meteor activity is not seen from radiants that are located far below the horizon. The positions below are listed in a west to east manner in order of right ascension (celestial longitude). The positions listed first are located further west therefore are accessible earlier in the night while those listed further down the list rise later in the night.

These sources of meteoric activity are expected to be active this week.

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The Draconids (DRA) are expected to be active from October 6-10 this year. The radiant lies at 17:28 (262) +54. This position lies in southeastern Draco, just west of the “head of Draco”, also known as the Lozenge. These meteors are best seen just as soon as it becomes dark on the evening of October 8/9. Face toward the north and look for any slow meteors shooting upward from the northern horizon. With an entry velocity of 20 km/sec., the average Draconid meteor would be of very slow velocity. These meteors are poorly seen from the southern hemisphere due to the low radiant altitude seen from below the equator.

We are now encountering inbound debris from comet 2P/Encke, which has its source superimposed upon the anthelion radiant. Since it has been shown that meteors from 2P/Encke are more numerous than the Anthelions, we will recognize this activity as the Southern Taurids (STA) from now until early December, when we no longer encounter remnants from comet 2P/Encke. Like the anthelion radiant, the source area is large and diffuse so observers can be liberal with the shower association of these meteors. The center of the large STA radiant is currently located at 01:44 (026) +07. This position lies in southeastern Pisces, 1 degree southeast of the 4^th magnitude star known as omicron Piscium. This radiant is best placed near 0100 LST, when it lies on the meridian and is located highest in the sky. To best see these meteors, face southward at this time. Rates at this time should be near 2 per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 29 km/sec., the average STA meteor would be of medium-slow velocity.

The Orionids (ORI) are active from October 2 through November 7, with maximum activity occurring on October 21st. The radiant is currently located at 05:36 (084) +14, which places it in northern Orion, 4 degrees northeast of the 4th magnitude star known as lambda Orionis. This area of the sky is best placed for observing near 5:00 LST, when it lies highest in the sky. To best see these meteors, face toward the south near this hour of the night. Current rates are expected to be near 1 per hour, no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 69 km/sec., the average ORI meteor would be of swift velocity.

The Daytime Sextantids (DSX) are active from September 9-October 9, with maximum activity occurring on September 27. The current position of the radiant is 10:23 (156) -03. This position lies in central Sextans, 3 degrees southwest of the faint star known as beta Sextantis. Rates at this time should be less than 1 per hour no matter your location. With an entry velocity of 32 km/sec., the average DSX meteor would be of medium-slow velocity. No matter your location, these meteors are difficult to observe as the radiant lies roughly 30 degrees from the sun. Therefore, these meteors may only be seen during the last hour prior to dawn, shooting upward from the eastern horizon.

The October Camelopardalids (OCT) are a recent discovery due to an outburst recorded by video cameras in 2005. Activity has occurred every year since and visual observers should be able to detect these meteors. This source is active from October 5-7 with maximum falling on the 6th. The radiant position lies near 10:56 (164) +79. This area of the sky is located in a barren area of extreme northeastern Camelopardalis. The easiest way to pinpoint the radiant is to extend a line eastward from the bottom two stars of the “bowl of the Little Dipper”. Extend another line northward from the “pointers” of the Big Dipper. Where these lines intersect is the location of the radiant. This area of the sky is above the horizon all night long but is best seen during the last dark hour before dawn when the radiant lies highest in a dark sky. Rates are expected to be low except near maximum activity. Due to the location near the northern pole, these meteors are not visible from the southern hemisphere. With an entry velocity of 47 km/sec., the average meteor from this source would be of medium velocity.

Sporadic meteors are those meteors that cannot be associated with any known meteor shower. All meteor showers are evolving and disperse over time to the point where they are no longer recognizable. Away from the peaks of the major annual showers, these sporadic meteors make up the bulk of the activity seen each night. As seen from the mid-Northern Hemisphere (45N) one would expect to see during this period approximately 10 sporadic meteors per hour during the last hour before dawn as seen from rural observing sites. Evening rates would be near 2 per hour. As seen from the tropical Southern latitudes (25S), morning rates would be near 7 per hour as seen from rural observing sites and 1 per hour during the evening hours. Locations between these two extremes would see activity between these listed figures.

Class Explanation: A scale to group meteor showers by their intensity:

• Class I: the strongest annual showers with Zenith Hourly Rates’s normally ten or better.
• Class II: reliable minor showers with ZHR’s normally two to ten.
• Class III: showers that do not provide annual activity. These showers are rarely active yet have the potential to produce a major display on occasion.
• Class IV: weak minor showers with ZHR’s rarely exceeding two. The study of these showers is best left to experienced observers who use plotting and angular velocity estimates to determine shower association. These weak showers are also good targets for video and photographic work. Observers with less experience are urged to limit their shower associations to showers with a rating of I to III.